Matches · Midnight Season 1
MMR: gaps, wins and match length
In 3v3 EU, below a 100-point MMR gap, the higher-rated team wins what a standard Elo formula predicts (61.1% with a gap of 50 to 99 points). Beyond that, it wins less often: 60.7% instead of 66.9% with a gap of 100 to 149 points. A logged match lasts 2:13 (median) between 1800 and 2099 MMR, 2:25 at 2400 MMR and up.
In 2v2 EU, below a 100-point MMR gap, the higher-rated team wins what a standard Elo formula predicts (59.5% with a gap of 50 to 99 points). Further up, with a gap of 200 points or more, it wins less often: 60.1% instead of 82.6%. A logged match lasts 2:06 (median) between 1800 and 2099 MMR, 2:34 at 2400 MMR and up.
In Solo Shuffle EU, a logged round lasts 1:57 (median).
In 3v3 US, from an MMR gap of 1 to 24 points, the higher-rated team wins more often than a standard Elo formula predicts: 52.0% instead of 51.4%. A logged match lasts 2:13 (median) between 1800 and 2099 MMR, 2:35 at 2400 MMR and up.
In 2v2 US, below a 50-point MMR gap, the higher-rated team wins what a standard Elo formula predicts (56.7% with a gap of 25 to 49 points). Beyond that, it wins more often: 63.8% instead of 60.0% with a gap of 50 to 99 points. A logged match lasts 2:00 (median) between 1800 and 2099 MMR, 2:17 at 2400 MMR and up.
In Solo Shuffle US, a logged round lasts 2:01 (median).
Season ended Aug 11, 2026Matches from Jul 18 to Aug 11, 2026
What an MMR gap is worth
- of matches won by the higher-rated team, gap of 1 to 24 points
- 51.3%
- of matches won by the higher-rated team, gap of 150 to 199 points
- 67.7%
Show the chart's numbers (table)
| MMR gap | Wins, higher-rated team | Margin of error | Elo formula | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 24 | 51.3% | 50.5 to 52.0 | 51.3% | 15,874 |
| 25 to 49 | 54.4% | 52.0 to 56.5 | 54.8% | 2,184 |
| 50 to 99 | 61.1% | 58.1 to 63.9 | 60.1% | 1,116 |
| 100 to 149 | 60.7% | 56.5 to 64.6 | 66.9% | 506 |
| 150 to 199 | 67.7% | 63.5 to 71.9 | 73.3% | 446 |
By MMR gap, in points
- 1 to 24
- 51.3%Elo 51.3%
- 25 to 49
- 54.4%Elo 54.8%
- 50 to 99
- 61.1%Elo 60.1%
- 100 to 149
- 60.7%Elo 66.9%
- 150 to 199
- 67.7%Elo 73.3%
How long a match lasts
| Average MMR | Median length | Spread | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1800 to 2099 | 2:131:29 · 3:25 | 7,504 | |
| 2100 to 2399 | 2:231:36 · 3:48 | 10,898 | |
| 2400 and up | 2:251:33 · 3:49 | 2,469 |
2:13
per match (median), between 1800 and 2099 MMR
One match in two lasts between 1:29 and 3:25.
Matches below 1800 MMR are too rare in the logs to be published.
What an MMR gap is worth
- of matches won by the higher-rated team, gap of 1 to 24 points
- 52.6%
- of matches won by the higher-rated team, gap of 200 points or more
- 60.1%
Show the chart's numbers (table)
| MMR gap | Wins, higher-rated team | Margin of error | Elo formula | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 24 | 52.6% | 51.1 to 54.0 | 51.5% | 4,567 |
| 25 to 49 | 56.8% | 53.8 to 59.3 | 54.9% | 1,140 |
| 50 to 99 | 59.5% | 55.9 to 63.1 | 59.9% | 687 |
| 200 and up | 60.1% | 54.5 to 66.0 | 82.6% | 414 |
By MMR gap, in points
- 1 to 24
- 52.6%Elo 51.5%
- 25 to 49
- 56.8%Elo 54.9%
- 50 to 99
- 59.5%Elo 59.9%
- 200 and up
- 60.1%Elo 82.6%
How long a match lasts
| Average MMR | Median length | Spread | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1800 to 2099 | 2:061:20 · 3:03 | 2,695 | |
| 2100 to 2399 | 2:221:33 · 3:32 | 3,720 | |
| 2400 and up | 2:341:37 · 3:53 | 911 |
2:06
per match (median), between 1800 and 2099 MMR
One match in two lasts between 1:20 and 3:03.
Matches below 1800 MMR are too rare in the logs to be published.
How long a round lasts
| Average MMR | Median length | Spread | Rounds |
|---|---|---|---|
| All levels | 1:571:19 · 2:34 | 18,256 |
1:57
per round (median)
One round in two lasts between 1:19 and 2:34.
What an MMR gap is worth
- of matches won by the higher-rated team, gap of 1 to 24 points
- 52.0%
- of matches won by the higher-rated team, gap of 200 points or more
- 70.2%
Show the chart's numbers (table)
| MMR gap | Wins, higher-rated team | Margin of error | Elo formula | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 24 | 52.0% | 51.4 to 52.6 | 51.4% | 34,062 |
| 25 to 49 | 56.3% | 54.9 to 57.7 | 54.8% | 5,808 |
| 50 to 99 | 61.2% | 59.3 to 63.0 | 59.8% | 2,686 |
| 100 to 149 | 65.5% | 62.6 to 68.2 | 66.9% | 1,187 |
| 150 to 199 | 64.7% | 61.5 to 67.8 | 73.1% | 856 |
| 200 and up | 70.2% | 65.5 to 74.4 | 81.5% | 517 |
By MMR gap, in points
- 1 to 24
- 52.0%Elo 51.4%
- 25 to 49
- 56.3%Elo 54.8%
- 50 to 99
- 61.2%Elo 59.8%
- 100 to 149
- 65.5%Elo 66.9%
- 150 to 199
- 64.7%Elo 73.1%
- 200 and up
- 70.2%Elo 81.5%
How long a match lasts
| Average MMR | Median length | Spread | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1800 to 2099 | 2:131:27 · 3:29 | 14,420 | |
| 2100 to 2399 | 2:231:35 · 3:52 | 23,625 | |
| 2400 and up | 2:351:39 · 4:16 | 8,066 |
2:13
per match (median), between 1800 and 2099 MMR
One match in two lasts between 1:27 and 3:29.
Matches below 1800 MMR are too rare in the logs to be published.
What an MMR gap is worth
- of matches won by the higher-rated team, gap of 1 to 24 points
- 52.2%
- of matches won by the higher-rated team, gap of 200 points or more
- 76.2%
Show the chart's numbers (table)
| MMR gap | Wins, higher-rated team | Margin of error | Elo formula | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 24 | 52.2% | 50.9 to 53.5 | 51.5% | 5,918 |
| 25 to 49 | 56.7% | 54.4 to 58.9 | 55.0% | 1,870 |
| 50 to 99 | 63.8% | 61.0 to 66.5 | 60.0% | 1,311 |
| 100 to 149 | 67.3% | 63.6 to 70.8 | 66.8% | 646 |
| 200 and up | 76.2% | 73.2 to 79.0 | 81.9% | 819 |
By MMR gap, in points
- 1 to 24
- 52.2%Elo 51.5%
- 25 to 49
- 56.7%Elo 55.0%
- 50 to 99
- 63.8%Elo 60.0%
- 100 to 149
- 67.3%Elo 66.8%
- 200 and up
- 76.2%Elo 81.9%
How long a match lasts
| Average MMR | Median length | Spread | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1800 to 2099 | 2:001:15 · 3:03 | 2,439 | |
| 2100 to 2399 | 2:051:19 · 3:12 | 6,863 | |
| 2400 and up | 2:171:30 · 3:34 | 1,765 |
2:00
per match (median), between 1800 and 2099 MMR
One match in two lasts between 1:15 and 3:03.
Matches below 1800 MMR are too rare in the logs to be published.
How long a round lasts
| Average MMR | Median length | Spread | Rounds |
|---|---|---|---|
| All levels | 2:011:22 · 2:40 | 39,631 |
2:01
per round (median)
One round in two lasts between 1:22 and 2:40.
Frequently asked questions
- What is an MMR gap worth in 3v3?
- In 3v3 EU, below a 100-point MMR gap, the higher-rated team wins what a standard Elo formula predicts (61.1% with a gap of 50 to 99 points). Beyond that, it wins less often: 60.7% instead of 66.9% with a gap of 100 to 149 points.
- How long does a 3v3 match last?
- A logged match lasts 2:13 (median) between 1800 and 2099 MMR, 2:25 at 2400 MMR and up. Matches below 1800 MMR are too rare in the logs to be published.
- Where do these matches come from?
- From arena logs uploaded by players, Jul 18 to Aug 11, 2026, mostly at an average MMR of 1800 or higher: they don't cover the whole ladder.